March 29, 2016

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Daily Dose of Shadows Over Innistrad – Statistically Speaking

Welcome to Deckbuilding Week on the Daily Dose! We will be looking at what the Standard metagame will look like in a couple of weeks. With the rotation of Standard coming upon us, it’s time to see if any of the current Standard decks will be able to work post rotation. Today we are going to look at some of the best decks in current Standard and see if any of them will stand the test of time.

4-Color Rally

Creatures (28)
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
Catacomb Sifter
Elvish Visionary
Grim Haruspex
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
Nantuko Husk
Reflector Mage
Sidisi’s Faithful
Zulaport Cutthroat

Spells (8)
Collected Company
Rally the Ancestors

Lands (24)
Canopy Vista
Evolving Wilds
Flooded Strand
Forest
Island
Plains
Polluted Delta
Prairie Stream
Sunken Hollow
Swamp
Windswept Heath

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 43/60 (71.1%)

With the main card name of this deck getting rotated out (Rally the Ancestors) and a crippled mana bases with 12 fetch lands rotating out, this deck will not be seeing play post-rotation with nothing being able to replace its main card.

Jeskai Black

Creatures (8)
Dragonmaster Outcast
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
Soulfire Grand Master

Spells (25)
Crackling Doom
Dig Through Time
Disdainful Stroke
Duress
Fiery Impulse
Kolaghan’s Command
Murderous Cut
Ojutai’s Command
Painful Truths
Radiant Flames
Roast

Planeswalkers (1)
Chandra, Flamecaller

Lands (26)
Bloodstained Mire
Flooded Strand
Island
Mountain
Mystic Monastery
Nomad Outpost
Plains
Polluted Delta
Prairie Stream
Smoldering Marsh
Sunken Hollow
Swamp

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 32/60 (53.3%)

As you can see, almost half of this powerful deck is rotating out including more than half of its mana base. Playing four colours will be near impossible without fetch lands, so don’t expect to see this deck in the near future.

Abzan Aggro

Creatures (24)
Anafenza, the Foremost
Den Protector
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
Rakshasa Deathdealer
Siege Rhino
Sylvan Advocate
Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Warden of the First Tree
Wingmate Roc

Spells (9)
Abzan Charm
Dromoka’s Command
Murderous Cut
Silkwrap

Planeswalkers (1)
Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Lands (26)
Canopy Vista
Flooded Strand
Forest
Llanowar Wastes
Plains
Shambling Vent
Smoldering Marsh
Sunken Hollow
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 26/60 (43.3%)

This deck flourished thanks to the powerful Abzan cards available in Khans of Tarkir, such as Siege Rhino, Anafenza, the Foremost and Abzan Charm.  With all of those gone it will be difficult for Abzan to hit the same power level it did before.

Bant Company

Creatures (27)
Deathmist Raptor
Den Protector
Eldrazi Skyspawner
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
Reflector Mage
Stratus Dancer
Sylvan Advocate
Wingmate Roc

Spells (8)
Collected Company
Dromoka’s Command

Lands (25)
Canopy Vista
Flooded Strand
Forest
Island
Lumbering Falls
Plains
Prairie Stream
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills
Yavimaya Coast

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 48/60 (80%)

With only three non-land cards needing to be replaced (Wingmate Roc), there is a good chance we will be seeing Bant Company again post-rotation.  You will be able to replace fetch lands with both Port Town and Fortified Village. Thing in the Ice and Hanweir Militia Captain could come into the fold as well.

Mono-Red Eldrazi

Creatures (26)
Hangarback Walker
Hedron Crawler
Pia and Kiran Nalaar
Reality Smasher
Thopter Engineer
Thought-Knot Seer
Vile Aggregate

Spells (5)
Roast
Spatial Contortion

Planeswalkers (4)
Chandra, Flamecaller

Lands (25)
Battlefield Forge
Foundry of the Consuls
10 Mountain
Ruins of Oran-Rief
Shivan Reef
Tomb of the Spirit Dragon

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 57/60 (95%)

Wow! Now this is a deck that could be seeing a lot of play post-rotation.  The three Tomb of the Spirit Dragons can be replaced with two Sea Gate Wreckage and one Westvale Abbey.  The rest of the deck could see some Shadows Over Innistrad cards put in it like Nahiri, the Harbinger.

Mardu Green

Creatures (11)
Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Siege Rhino
Sylvan Advocate

Spells (20)
Abzan Charm
Crackling Doom
Duress
Fiery Impulse
Kolaghan’s Command
Murderous Cut
Painful Truths
Read the Bones
Roast
Transgress the Mind

Planeswalkers (2)
Chandra, Flamecaller

Lands (27)
Bloodstained Mire
Canopy Vista
Cinder Glade
Forest
Hissing Quagmire
Mountain
Plains
Sandsteppe Citadel
Shambling Vent
Smoldering Marsh
Swamp
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills

Percentage of Deck Remaining – 36/60 (60%)

Once again, because this is a four-color deck, it will be very hard to play post-rotation without fetch lands. Also you are removing some key cards like Siege Rhino, Murderous Cut and Crackling Doom from the deck. We will not be seeing Mardu Green in the next few months.

Based on these results it looks like there are only two decks that will survive the rotation: Mono-Red Eldrazi and Bant Company. What will this lead to in the Standard metagame?  I believe we will see a lot of two-color decks come to the forefront, but because they have been used to a greater mana base because of fetch lands, it will be hard for a lot of players to get away from playing three and four colour decks, and that could hurt them again an aggressive deck waiting to pounce.

Thanks again for reading another Daily Dose of Shadows Over Innistrad as we are less than a week away from pre-release tournament at your local gaming store.  Come out often and enjoy the new cards!